World Cup Round Fixture Difficulty Analysis

Introduction

I wrote a World Cup Group stage fixture difficulty article based on Elo ratings and was asked to do a further analysis breaking down each round of the group stage. This is that analysis and hopefully, it will help those managers who plan to play their wildcard at the end of the second round of fixtures.

World Cup Group Fixture Difficulty Analysis

Method

Using team Elo ratings, I calculated the fixture difficulty of each team in rounds 1, 2 & 3.

There are a lot of friendly matches taking place in preparation for the world cup and the results of these matches are affecting Elo ratings. In the original article, I used the Elo rating from the beginning of w.c 4^th Jun 18 and for this article I have used the latest Elo ratings, from today 11th Jun 18. Therefore, as well as producing round by round fixture difficulty I have also updated the original group stage fixture difficulty table.

Results & Comments

Overall Group

This is the updated overall group stage table.

Uruguay still 3^rd.

Spain and Argentina swap places.

England, Colombia & Belgium move up.

France drop from 6^th to 9^th.

 

Individual Round fixture difficulty

Rounds 1 & 2

This is the interesting part for managers thinking about playing their wildcard after the second round of fixtures. Below is the fixture difficulty table for rounds 1 & 2.

Brazil are still top as they play Switzerland and Costa Rica.

England move up to second place as they do not play Belgium until the third round of fixtures. For the same reason, Belgium move up to 4^th place.

Uruguay hold onto third place as they play Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

Germany are the losers as they fall to 5^th. Their easiest fixture is against South Korea, but that is not until the 3^rd round of fixtures.

Argentina’s easiest fixture, against Nigeria, is also in the 3^rd round of fixtures.

Peru, who did provide 3 players for my initial draft squad, has fallen to 15^th!

Round 3

Below is the round 3 fixture difficulty table.

Brazil is still no 1.

Germany has moved back to 2^nd.

England and Belgium have fallen away as they play each other. Uruguay fall slightly.

Spain and Argentina move up to 3^rd and 4^th.

Peru also move up.

 

Decisions & Strategy

This additional analysis has convinced me to change my strategy. I will pick a team for rounds 1 & 2. This will have players from Brazil, England, Uruguay and Belgium. Rather than 2 German players it will only have one player. I doubt it will have many players from Peru! The budget players will likely come from Colombia and Russia.

After round 2 the wildcard will be played when I will switch from England and Belgium to Spain and Argentina players. An extra German player will come into the team and now players from Peru!

There are more friendlies to be played before the start of the tournament and the results of the first two rounds of fixtures will affect the Elo ratings. The strategy will remain the same, but the round 3 fixture difficulties could change and so could the teams from which I pick my players.

One final thought, I know Kane does not score in August, but how is he in June? 🙂